Client: Michelle Yeoh – Talent
Wicked has smashed a box office record during its worldwide debut. The new movie, which was directed by Crazy Rich Asians' Jon M. Chu, is an adaptation of the stage musical of the same name, which itself is an adaptation of the Gregory Maguire novel of the same name that is a prequel to The Wizard of Oz. It follows the early years of Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo) - the future Wicked Witch of the West - and Glinda (Ariana Grande-Butera). The Wicked release comes 21 years after the original show's Broadway debut, which kicked off a global musical phenomenon.
Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, the global opening weekend of Wicked is projected to hit a 3-day total of $164.2 million. This comes from a domestic debut of $114 million and international grosses of $50.2 million. Not only has this total already surpassed the movie's reported budget of roughly $150 million, it is by far the highest-grossing global debut of a Broadway adaptation, handily besting 2012's Les Misérables, which previously held the No. 1 spot with a worldwide opening weekend of $103 million.
This unprecedented global opening weekend shows that there may be no limit to the musical’s potential success. For one thing, it is already well on its way to turning a profit in theaters. Although movies, especially those with marketing campaigns as robust as this particular release, typically need to earn back at least two and a half times their price tag in theaters, the Wicked budget most likely places its break-even point somewhere around $375 million, a milestone that it is en route toward crossing without much difficulty.
There is almost no way to compare Wicked to previous releases. The only movie musicals that have debuted at its level are 2019’s The Lion King and 2018’s Beauty and the Beast, both of which eventually grossed over $1 billion worldwide, but also had powerful Disney nostalgia bolstering them. The highest-grossing non-Disney original musical of all time so far has been 2023’s Wonka, which grossed $625.4 million. While it opened internationally a week early, its domestic opening combined with that original total only reaches $82.2 million, indicating that Wicked could far surpass $650 million by the end of its run.
For the new movie to outgross Wonka, it needs to maintain the same kind of momentum that it has had coming into its global debut. While one potential stumbling block is audience frustration at learning that it is only adapting the first half of the stage musical, with Part Two set to debut in 2025, so far Wicked reviews have been outstanding, earning the movie a Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score of 90% with a Verified Hot 97% audience score. Thus, word of mouth will likely be stellar, helping the movie's overall gross fly to untold heights.
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